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Post by Deleted on Aug 15, 2020 0:46:31 GMT -6
"all your eggs in one basket" time. risks should be shared around not be all in one place, the problem is that only a prepper can see that as a problem, everyone else is so complascent, I guess "normalcy bias" rules.
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Post by brownbear on Aug 15, 2020 1:37:02 GMT -6
I agree. It does concern me that a government would be so blind to risk management. I guess contracts are awarded to "rich mates" and companies with some sort of preferred interest rather than with common sense and risk awareness in mind. Of course, that is one of the fundamental failings of a democratic system.
The problem with the "connected" age is that we seem to be losing manual skills. I realise that the in the UK most industry is becoming "service" based but, nonetheless the reduction in fundamental skill availability is shocking. So few people do things themselves when they can "get a man in". In our parents generation resorting to calling someone in was reserved for electrical, plumbing and gas work only. Nowadays people get the "experts" in to tell them how to lay their gardens out. All very disappointing.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 15, 2020 1:43:28 GMT -6
we dont just "seem" to be losing manual skills we have lost many manual skills already, I cant remember the last time I saw a blacksmith or a farrier, and most of the farming type skills are now done with machines. in my parents generation they were "jack of all trades", my father put in a gas line and a gas fire, the only time he needed a gas fitter was to okay his work, he also used to resole all our shoes, and he was an accountant!!!
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Post by brownbear on Aug 15, 2020 1:48:11 GMT -6
Funnily enough it was blacksmiths that first sprang to mind when I wrote that post.
I suspect here is the problem, not of our generation's father were either in the forces during the war or, afterwards, during national service (US members think along the lines if conscription here) where a very many good practical skills were not only taught, but encouraged. Nowadays the UK makes very little so there are comparatively few young people becoming apprentices, which further weakens the skills base.
It is a dangerous situation as if we ever move to a war footing we will be unable to maintain our home shores.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 15, 2020 2:04:33 GMT -6
I suspect that the modern generation dont want to get their hands dirty or think such work is beneath them. have you tried to employ an electrician or a plumber recently? there arent that many around these days and those that are about are booked up for years to come, that sort of work has to be certified by a professional body so its not something we are even allowed to do ourselves anymore. most youngsters want to be models or something in I.T., a manual job apprentice or not dosent seem to come into it. I've tried to do a few courses myself, I have done a fungi recognition course, and a bow making course and a green woodworking course, some people I know run a small holding where these courses can take place, wife did a few herbal courses when we lived in Somerset.
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Post by brownbear on Aug 15, 2020 2:16:24 GMT -6
I think what you said there has it right, in a nutshell. Too many want to be models etc.
Continual learning is a healthy process, it is good for the mind and is never wasted.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 15, 2020 3:00:02 GMT -6
all the courses are cancelled at the moment due to the pandemic. when they do start up again I'll see if there is another one I can do. I'd like to find another allotment, the one we were on dosent exist anymore-it only had a 5 year lease, the local one is full up and too regimentated anyway, its on a working farm and there are too many rules. thats one reason I'm trying to buy a bit of land.
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Post by texdanm on Aug 19, 2020 17:24:28 GMT -6
What we will face after TEOTWAWKI will in part be what exactly brought it on. A REAL pandemic that killed 85% of those infected would result in a very different post-apocalyptic world than say some sort of huge EMP type thing that knocked out all electrical power worldwide. The same would be true if a huge volcanic eruption led to darkness and acid rain that would eliminate our crops. Or a nuclear war that wiped out the big cities. All would/could have VERY different results and also where you are at would/could have a lot o do with what you had to deal with. Am EMP or whatever that took down the power wouldn't have much effect on the primitive tribes along the Amazon or those in Central Equatorial Africa.
From a prepper's point of view, a loss of power would be a best-case scenario. No power would mean no communication past hollering distance. I believe that most of us in the prepper community and those of us in more rural places would react to this a lot sooner than the average big city person. Most people in the BIG cities will sit there waiting got someone to come and take care of them. They won't react until the food and water are used up and then their reaction will probably not be effective.
Riots won't make things better. When the store shelves are empty you had better have more than a few cans of soup in your pantry. The people in rural areas and even those that are preppers in big cities will almost certainly have weapons and know how to use them. The small towns will last a little longer and are much more likely to have supplies that city folks won't have or think about. Where I live we have more big feed stores than we have big grocery stores. Most of what you feed animals are totally eatable for humans. In the country starting in August our convenience stores have 50-pound bags of shell corn for the hunters to put in their deer feeders.
Most big cities like NYC have enough food on hand to feed their population for THREE DAYS. The Water may not last that long and can you IMAGINE what the inner city will be like when the sewage system goes down? No matter what the cause violence, disease, and starvation are going to be huge killers.
On another point, the problem with making vaccines for viruses is that most viral infections are a get it once then its done thing. Viral infections are extremely unstable and mutate fast. The Rinoviruses that cause the common cold is actually over 700 different viruses. Viruses that are stable we usually can create a vaccine for but it is mostly used on the next generation. Smallpox, for example, is caused by the variola virus. Everyone of my generation has a round scar on our shoulder from the smallpox vaccine. The various influences are all different and a vaccine for say swine Flu is totally ineffective for bird flu. The vaccines are usually late to the game and are for the flu that made the rounds LAST YEAR. I remember when they found and made a vaccine for the poliovirus. So many of the viruses that were a part of being a kid are now treated by vaccines and kids just don't catch them anymore.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2020 4:46:37 GMT -6
in the western world we have a "just in time" delivery system, thats usually 3 DAYS worth of normal sales, in a catastrophe that will be gone in as many HOURS. people dont store much food these days, modern houses are so small they cant, 3 days worth of food maybe 5 days if your lucky is the norm, I've know city people that shop daily just for that days evening meal, some have nothing at all and eat out all the time. once the power is down none of that is going to last long, and no power means no deliveries so no replacement once the store is empty. people have no idea these days where their food comes from or how it is produced, they just expect it to be in the stores and when it isnt they dont know what to do. cities will become places of violence, disease, starvation and death.
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Post by brownbear on Aug 20, 2020 10:36:56 GMT -6
I think we say the effects of JOT when all the loo rolls got snapped up as soon as a lockdown was mooted.
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Post by drhenley on Aug 20, 2020 11:43:27 GMT -6
One big factor in the "TP crisis" was that people were using the loo at home instead of at work. There was a glut of industrial TP because people weren't using it. It took a while for some companies to figure out how to get some of that into the consumer supply chain.
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Post by brownbear on Aug 21, 2020 0:25:53 GMT -6
That's a fair point Doc, but I do know people who are still using the stocks they rushed out and bought now.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 21, 2020 1:22:19 GMT -6
hell I've got enough for 6 months and I didnt buy it in a panic.
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Post by brownbear on Aug 21, 2020 1:30:39 GMT -6
No, but many people did. Most people do not think ahead like a prepare would and went for trying to stock up at the 11th hour. That highlighted the weaknesses in the UK supply chain, and hopefully people will be a bit more aware moving forward.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 21, 2020 1:38:20 GMT -6
dont hold your breath on that one, either the next lockdown or the next event they'll do it all the same again. your ordinary person DOES NOT prepare, they think nothing bad will happen, until it does of course then they panic and we saw the results, fighting in the supermarkets. I remember one old guy being attacked as he came out of the supermarket and being robbed of all his purchases, does that sound like the actions of a logical person?
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Post by brownbear on Aug 21, 2020 1:44:36 GMT -6
I remember that story about the old guy. There are always going to be chancers, but I do hope that, maybe, some lessons have been learnt
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Post by Deleted on Aug 21, 2020 1:55:42 GMT -6
in the modern mostly urban generation? I doubt it.people are very set in their ways and "normalcy bias" is common. apart from wearing face coverings in shops most people seem to think its back to normal.
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Post by kelabar on Aug 21, 2020 3:44:26 GMT -6
I see a lot of criticism of Just-In-Time systems that is't really warranted IMO. Is is really expected that stores should stock enough of an item so that if people suddenly want to buy three months worth instead of their usual weekly amount there is enough for everyone? It isn't a supply problem. The same amount of food/items will be available regardless. I recall a comment from a USA person back in April, "We're all going to starve because the shelves are empty!". Well, until the next delivery and then they will be full again. Logistics is a very well understood discipline. A certain number of people will use a certain amount of an item over a certain period of time. Militaries know this, companies know this, any organisation that feeds or supplies a large number of people know this. It isn't rocket science. These items are already being produced for when you next want them. The food doesn't magically appear on the shelves at night after the store closes its doors. The growers, processors and transporters all work back from when the food or item is needed. If large numbers of farmers die from a disease then start worrying, if large numbers of transportation personnel start dying then start worrying. But don't worry for quite a few months, this 'lag' time will see everyone fed for a while. If things are going to get really bad you will have plenty of warning. Crop diseases could be a significant cause of starvation, as could loss/halting of shipping especially due to war. But empty shelves don't mean much because the food doesn't come from the shelf.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 21, 2020 4:04:06 GMT -6
Just in time systems are fine as long as there is no panic, once an event happens or is imminent then the shelves are cleared by the unprepared citizenry, the JIT system is based on NORMAL sales usually a 3 day supply is stocked in an emergency the shelves will be cleared in as many hours, we saw this with the pandemic when a national lockdown was announced, sure they will be resupplied but until they are the shelves are empty .
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Jim_K7JLJ
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JN14:21 He who has My commandments and keeps them is the one who loves Me...
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Post by Jim_K7JLJ on Aug 21, 2020 8:13:51 GMT -6
...your ordinary person DOES NOT prepare, they think nothing bad will happen, until it does of course then they panic and we saw the results, fighting in the supermarkets. I remember one old guy being attacked as he came out of the supermarket and being robbed of all his purchases, does that sound like the actions of a logical person? Not only do they NOT prepare, they will not even though you tell them. I started warning my co-workers to put some food away and showed them the articles of WA buying 6.1 million worth starting last April and storing in warehouses. I listened to them complain about TP shortages, etc. from the last go around, so you would think they might DO SOMETHING to prevent coming up short again? No, they got angry because they were hearing from a "nut job" that things could get worse in the near future and refuse to change their normal routine. They are more worried about buying their next gadget / toy than having food if the shelves are dried up again. I had to stop showing them the indicators that harder times are coming, they MUST believe the delusion to feel safe instead of taking steps to be safe.
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